US equities closed the third week of June sharply higher, busted by the FOMC meeting dovish tone and future interest rates outlook and the improved positive tone of US President Trump regarding his G20 meetings with the Chinese leader Xi Ping.
The S&P 500 is now on track for the best six months run since 1997, up 17.5% YTD. The markets are pricing in 3 rates cuts this year and in 2020 and a 100% probability of a rate cut in July. As expected, the 10-year note dropped to under the 2% yield and the dollar took a 1.35% dive versus majors, its worst performance in more than 3 years. The biggest winner this week came from the commodities rank, Gold traded higher on the lower yields to close the week at above the $1,400 level, levels Gold investors haven't seen since 2013 and Oil traded higher more than 9% for the week on a triple effect: the weaker dollar, the improved global economic sentiment and the tensions in the Persian-gulf.
All these reasons propelled Oil to a $57.45 per barrel close, the best week for Oil in 2019.
With all the positive news already priced fully in on the dollar rate side and most US China trade war news priced in as well, it seems that investors are now without any additional positive triggers heading into the G20 and the beginning of second quarter earnings, less than 2 weeks away.
Looking ahead to the upcoming earnings front, many US companies across various sectors, semis, retail, materials and industrials have been under increased pressure from US/China tariffs and their earnings are likely to suffer from the consequences.
The markets looks to be entering the upcoming earnings season at all-time highs, a risky timing for stock investors and with very few alternative markets for safety given the run up in Gold this week and the lower long term treasury yields.